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.27 Yergin, The Prize, as above, Chapter eight, The Oil Wars: The Rise of RoyalDutch. End of the Cold War and the Middle East 75Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait founded OPEC in 1960 at theBaghdad Conference.But at first OPEC was unable to use its cartel power to increaseoil prices because non-OPEC member countries were still important producers andexporters and OPEC members could not agree on a common policy.This situation,however, changed quickly in the early 1970s.OPEC achieved control over more than55 per cent of the global oil supply as new members joined, and the cartel startedto fix production quotas based on the declared oil reserves of each of its members.OPEC member states also began to nationalise their oil industries: Libya, 1971; Iraq,1972; Iran, 1973; Saudi Arabia, 1975; Venezuela, 1975.OPEC also tried to avoidsupply competition that would bring the down the price of oil.As a result, between1970 and 1973, oil prices increased modestly from $1.80 to $3.29 per barrel.The Yom Kippur War in 1973 gave OPEC political impetus to intervene bynationalising production facilities, reducing production by 25 per cent, and imposingexport quotas.The immediate goal was to undermine support for Israel, mainly bythe US.The price of oil climbed to $12 per barrel by late 1973.OPEC had the abilityto control the price of oil and thereby produced the first oil shock.Under the controlof OPEC, the price of oil remained higher but stable from 1974 to 1978, at around$12 per barrel.The developed countries started to worry about the exhaustion ofoil reserves and unreliable supply sources.The Iranian revolution of 1979 and theensuing Iran-Iraq War (1980 1988) then caused the second oil shock where theprice of oil surged to over $35 per barrel, and several developed countries imposedadministrative measures to lower oil consumption and diversify energy production.Coupled with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian revolution, thisshock also led to the Carter Doctrine.President Carter said in 1980 that the US would intervene militarily if its oil supplywas threatened.The US military presence in the Middle East was increased, as theflow of oil through the Persian Gulf was clearly perceived as critically important toUS national security.From that time, the US has in fact been prepared to use militaryforce to protect the supply of Middle East oil to the US and world economy.Nonetheless, during the late 1980s and early 1990s, the OPEC countriesgradually lost their price-fixing power because of disagreements within OPECincluding particularly the Iran-Iraq war.Also new producers developed outsideOPEC including: Russia after the Soviet collapse; Mexico, that discovered newfields; Norway and the UK with the North Sea fields; and Colombia.Latin Americancountries, such as Columbia and Brazil, also tried to boost their oil production, asdid others in Africa and Southeast Asian.28 After 1982, disagreements also occurredbetween OPEC members about how to fix quotas and prices.Furthermore, the shareof OPEC again dropped from 55 per cent of all oil exported in the 1970s, to 42 percent in 2000, with a low of 30 per cent in 1985.Saudi Arabia sometimes lowered itsoil price to increase its market share and OPEC members competed with each otherto be allotted larger quotas.OPEC then allocated quotas to members in proportionto their proven oil reserves, which were often realigned: Kuwait s reserves suddenlyclimbed from 64 billion to 92 billion barrels and those of the UAE were alsoincreased unilaterally from 31 billion to 92 billion barrels.Iran announced that its28 Bob Catley and Makmur Keliat, Spratlys (Aldershot, 1997). 76 The American Challenge real reserves were 93 billion barrels, up from a previous 47 billion barrels.The mostsignificant increase in oil reserves in 1985 was from Iraq, with its reserves going upto 100 billion barrels, from the previous figure of 47 billions.Those reserve figuresremain in the twenty first century, further increasing the difficulty of evaluating the peak oil theory.The result was an oil counter-shock that lowered the price to $20a barrel, with a low of $15 in 1988.Iraq then invaded Kuwait in 1990 and the price of oil again jumped to $23 perbarrel.The US then applied the Carter Doctrine and ousted Iraqi forces from Kuwait.An oil embargo was then established on Iraq by the UN.However, other oil-exportingcountries expanded their production to replace the shortfalls of Iraq and Kuwait, andthe price of oil again fell to $15 per barrel by the end of the 1990s [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]
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.27 Yergin, The Prize, as above, Chapter eight, The Oil Wars: The Rise of RoyalDutch. End of the Cold War and the Middle East 75Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait founded OPEC in 1960 at theBaghdad Conference.But at first OPEC was unable to use its cartel power to increaseoil prices because non-OPEC member countries were still important producers andexporters and OPEC members could not agree on a common policy.This situation,however, changed quickly in the early 1970s.OPEC achieved control over more than55 per cent of the global oil supply as new members joined, and the cartel startedto fix production quotas based on the declared oil reserves of each of its members.OPEC member states also began to nationalise their oil industries: Libya, 1971; Iraq,1972; Iran, 1973; Saudi Arabia, 1975; Venezuela, 1975.OPEC also tried to avoidsupply competition that would bring the down the price of oil.As a result, between1970 and 1973, oil prices increased modestly from $1.80 to $3.29 per barrel.The Yom Kippur War in 1973 gave OPEC political impetus to intervene bynationalising production facilities, reducing production by 25 per cent, and imposingexport quotas.The immediate goal was to undermine support for Israel, mainly bythe US.The price of oil climbed to $12 per barrel by late 1973.OPEC had the abilityto control the price of oil and thereby produced the first oil shock.Under the controlof OPEC, the price of oil remained higher but stable from 1974 to 1978, at around$12 per barrel.The developed countries started to worry about the exhaustion ofoil reserves and unreliable supply sources.The Iranian revolution of 1979 and theensuing Iran-Iraq War (1980 1988) then caused the second oil shock where theprice of oil surged to over $35 per barrel, and several developed countries imposedadministrative measures to lower oil consumption and diversify energy production.Coupled with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian revolution, thisshock also led to the Carter Doctrine.President Carter said in 1980 that the US would intervene militarily if its oil supplywas threatened.The US military presence in the Middle East was increased, as theflow of oil through the Persian Gulf was clearly perceived as critically important toUS national security.From that time, the US has in fact been prepared to use militaryforce to protect the supply of Middle East oil to the US and world economy.Nonetheless, during the late 1980s and early 1990s, the OPEC countriesgradually lost their price-fixing power because of disagreements within OPECincluding particularly the Iran-Iraq war.Also new producers developed outsideOPEC including: Russia after the Soviet collapse; Mexico, that discovered newfields; Norway and the UK with the North Sea fields; and Colombia.Latin Americancountries, such as Columbia and Brazil, also tried to boost their oil production, asdid others in Africa and Southeast Asian.28 After 1982, disagreements also occurredbetween OPEC members about how to fix quotas and prices.Furthermore, the shareof OPEC again dropped from 55 per cent of all oil exported in the 1970s, to 42 percent in 2000, with a low of 30 per cent in 1985.Saudi Arabia sometimes lowered itsoil price to increase its market share and OPEC members competed with each otherto be allotted larger quotas.OPEC then allocated quotas to members in proportionto their proven oil reserves, which were often realigned: Kuwait s reserves suddenlyclimbed from 64 billion to 92 billion barrels and those of the UAE were alsoincreased unilaterally from 31 billion to 92 billion barrels.Iran announced that its28 Bob Catley and Makmur Keliat, Spratlys (Aldershot, 1997). 76 The American Challenge real reserves were 93 billion barrels, up from a previous 47 billion barrels.The mostsignificant increase in oil reserves in 1985 was from Iraq, with its reserves going upto 100 billion barrels, from the previous figure of 47 billions.Those reserve figuresremain in the twenty first century, further increasing the difficulty of evaluating the peak oil theory.The result was an oil counter-shock that lowered the price to $20a barrel, with a low of $15 in 1988.Iraq then invaded Kuwait in 1990 and the price of oil again jumped to $23 perbarrel.The US then applied the Carter Doctrine and ousted Iraqi forces from Kuwait.An oil embargo was then established on Iraq by the UN.However, other oil-exportingcountries expanded their production to replace the shortfalls of Iraq and Kuwait, andthe price of oil again fell to $15 per barrel by the end of the 1990s [ Pobierz całość w formacie PDF ]